Disruption by Design
Why Leaders Can’t Afford to Ignore the Next Global Shift
Sofia, June 2025 — In a world increasingly defined by volatility, political theater, and crumbling institutional norms, leaders must navigate not just uncertainty—but a strategic reordering of global power. This was the focus of an electrifying session in Sofia led by geopolitical analyst Matthew Lehrfeld, titled “Disruption by Design”.
The conversation wasn’t about punditry or partisanship. It was about recognizing how Donald Trump’s return—or even just his shadow—signals a structural rupture in the global economic and security order. And more importantly, why business leaders should stop treating politics as background noise and start treating it as a strategic variable.
The Real Questions Facing Business Leaders
What happens when the rules of international trade no longer hold? When tariffs are used not as policy but as negotiation weapons? When security alliances fray, and international law becomes optional? For those steering organizations across borders, the implications are no longer theoretical, they’re operational.
Matthew’s analysis exposed the underlying logic or lack thereof behind current U.S. foreign policy shifts:
Transactional over multilateral: It’s no longer about alliances, but deals.
Tariffs as tools, not strategy: Used inconsistently for leverage, not for long-term industrial policy.
Security disengagement: From Ukraine to the Middle East, America is recalibrating what it’s willing to protect.
Trump’s worldview, as Lehrfeld broke down, isn’t grounded in ideology. It’s grounded in instinct and short-term wins, driven by a belief that the U.S. has been taken advantage of by the very institutions it created. And yet, while Trump headlines the drama, the trends run deeper: de-dollarization, reshoring, bilateralism, erosion of trust.
Why It Matters Now
For CEOs, founders, and strategic decision-makers, the world ahead isn’t just VUCA—it’s DVEA: Disrupted, Volatile, Entropic, Asymmetric. Understanding global shifts is no longer the domain of think tanks. It’s a core leadership competency.
With the EU and US on the brink of tit-for-tat tariffs, with China repositioning itself as a tech superpower, and with global trade running on increasingly fractured rails, leaders can’t afford to be geopolitically illiterate.
